Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em: J.K. Dobbins, Kirk Cousins, Najee Harris can be semi winners

The biggest story in Week 16 could be the weather, and the games to worry about are Jacksonville at the Jets, New Orleans at Cleveland and Buffalo at Chicago. We also have some concerns about Houston at Tennessee, Cincinnati at New England, Seattle at Kansas City, Atlanta at Baltimore and Las Vegas at Pittsburgh.

You always want to check the forecast just before game time to make sure if the weather could be a problem. For example, in Week 15 we were expecting a bad snowstorm in Buffalo for Bills-Dolphins, but the snow didn’t become an issue until late in the game.

Still, it might be ugly for some of the better Fantasy options in Week 16, which is the semifinals of the playoffs in the majority of leagues. This isn’t what we wanted to deal with at this time of year, but here we are.

For Jaguars-Jets, there could be steady rain and wind. I’ll still start Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, but I’m downgrading Zay Jones as you’ll read below. Garrett Wilson remains a No. 2 receiver for the Jets, but he’s the only part of the passing game I like for New York.

I’m punting on almost everyone in the passing game for Saints-Browns. This game might have the worst weather in Week 16 with snow and wind gusts over 40 mph per some reports. For the Saints, Taysom Hill could be a sneaky option given his role in the ground game. For the Browns, I’d steer clear of Deshaun Watson, and Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku all get downgraded.

For Bills-Bears, the wind will be an issue with gusts reported at 35 mph. I’m not worried about Josh Allen, and I’m still starting Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox. But this makes it easier to fade Gabe Davis, who has been struggling in good weather. For the Bears, I’m still starting Justin Fields, who should be fine with his production on the ground. However, you can bench Cole Kmet, who has a bad matchup along with the bad weather.

As for Texans-Titans, Bengals-Patriots, Seahawks-Chiefs, Falcons-Ravens and Raiders-Steelers, I haven’t seen anything to make me change my opinion yet on any players as of Wednesday afternoon. It’s going to be cold, but the wind and precipitation should be OK for these games.

Ideally, the weather doesn’t impact our best players in Week 16. But it’s just something else to consider when we set our lineups for this week.

In Week 13, when the Ravens opened the window for J.K. Dobbins to return from injured reserve, here’s what I wrote about him in the waiver wire column. Dobbins had been out since Week 7 after having knee surgery, and we didn’t know what kind of impact he would make in his comeback. But I wanted to stash him just in case. He was rostered in 57 percent of CBS Sports leagues at the time.

“When healthy, (Dobbins) could still be the No. 1 running back in Baltimore, although he will likely share touches with Gus Edwards and even Kenyan Drake. The Ravens have some juicy matchups coming up against Cleveland in Week 15 and Atlanta in Week 16, and Dobbins could be a potential low-end starter or flex option if he’s healthy by then.”

Dobbins shattered my expectations in his first game back in Week 14 at Pittsburgh with 15 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown. He followed that up with 13 carries for 125 yards and one catch for 3 yards on one target at Cleveland in Week 15.

We’ll see what happens in Week 16 against Atlanta, and hopefully Lamar Jackson (knee) can return for this game after being out for the past two weeks. But even if Tyler Huntley starts again, I still like Dobbins as a borderline No. 1 running back in all formats, with his value higher in non-PPR leagues.

The Falcons have allowed eight running backs this season to score at least 18 PPR points, and four running backs have rushed for at least 100 yards against Atlanta. There have been nine running backs with at least 15 carries against the Falcons, and eight of them have scored at least 12 PPR points. I expect Dobbins to get at least 15 carries this week since he should be the best offensive player for Baltimore, even if Jackson plays.

I’m excited to see Dobbins playing well right now. For those of you who stashed him all season or picked him up at the right time, he should reward you with a big game in Week 16.

START ‘EM & SIT ‘EM

Quarterbacks

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Running Backs

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Wide Receivers

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Tight End

Buccaneers (at ARI)

The Buccaneers DST has been underwhelming this season, but this should be a great week against the Cardinals. Trace McSorley is starting for Arizona, and he struggled in relief of Colt McCoy (concussion) in Week 15 at Denver with two interceptions and just 95 passing yards on 7-of-15 attempts. It’s hard to expect him to rebound with a big performance in Week 16, and I like the Buccaneers DST as a top-five Fantasy option in this matchup.

• Chargers (at IND)
• Lions (at CAR)
• Broncos (at LAR)

Patriots (vs. CIN)

The Patriots defense did OK in Week 15 at Las Vegas with three sacks, one interception and a defensive score, but I expect the Patriots DST to struggle in Week 16 against the Bengals. Joe Burrow has been sacked two times or less in six games in a row, and Cincinnati has scored at least 23 points in five of the past six outings. The Bengals also have just four turnovers in the past six games. The Patriots defense could benefit from playing at home this week, but I don’t think New England will slow down Cincinnati’s offense in this matchup.

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KICKERS